Is the July unemployment report a last gasp? 

Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning issued the following statement on the latest jobs numbers.

“The summary of the household employment data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics misses the point on the July unemployment report. They write, ‘the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, and the number of unemployed persons edged down to 5.7 million. These measures have returned to their levels in February 2020, prior to the coronavirus pandemic.’ The problem is that the civilian population is more than 2.2 million higher today than in February 2020 and the civilian workforce is 1.8 million people smaller than prior to the pandemic.  Additionally, there are 576,000 fewer employed today than prior to the pandemic, meaning that the employment economy is actually nowhere near pre-pandemic levels.

“It is good news that the number of unemployed shrank by 242,000 below February 2020, this good news is at least partially attributable to the 239,000 people left the workforce entirely in July and that the overall percentage of Americans in the workforce went down, but anytime fewer people are unemployed that is a good thing.

“The establishment survey shows that more than half million jobs were filled, which confirms the June Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey’s findings that existing job openings are declining rapidly.  The most interesting finding in this study is that home construction employment is up and seemingly doing very well.  This contradicts other reports that new home starts are lagging.

“It can be anticipated that the Biden administration will crow over this jobs report, while ignoring the fact that more and more Americans are being laid off each week with the effects being absorbed by labor starved employers. The four-month continued rise in unemployment claims signals that the July jobs report is more likely the last bloom before a barren fall and winter, than any renaissance offsetting the recession the economy finds itself in.”